As the 2024 presidential election draws closer, Vice President Kamala Harris finds her lead over former President Donald Trump shrinking, according to recent polling data. Despite a post-convention boost, Harris now holds a narrow advantage of just four percentage points, a decline from earlier in the summer. The ABC News/Ipsos poll reveals a tightening race, with Trump gaining traction among key voter demographics, particularly on issues like the economy and immigration, where he continues to outperform Harris.
The poll, conducted in late August, shows that while Harris remains ahead, her lead has diminished since the Democratic National Convention. A majority of Americans continue to view Harris as more physically and mentally fit to serve as president, with 57% believing she is in better health and 47% considering her more mentally sharp compared to Trump. However, these perceived strengths have not translated into a commanding lead, as Trump’s focus on economic issues resonates with a significant portion of the electorate.
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Trump’s supporters remain firmly behind him, with 60% expressing strong support, though a notable 31% do so with reservations. This contrasts with Harris, whose support is slightly less enthusiastic, with 64% of her backers strongly supporting her and 18% having some reservations. Interestingly, a larger share of Harris supporters say they are driven by a dislike of the other candidates, reflecting the polarized nature of the race.
The poll also indicates that Trump’s handling of the economy, inflation, and immigration is more trusted by voters, with margins of +8 on the economy and inflation, and +9 on immigration. These are critical issues that could swing undecided voters as the campaign enters its final phase. Harris, on the other hand, is seen as more trustworthy in areas like protecting American democracy and Supreme Court appointments, where she holds a smaller edge.
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Despite Trump’s gains, Harris still leads among key voter groups, particularly women and minorities, who view her campaign favorably.
However, Trump is closing in, particularly among independents and working-class voters who are increasingly concerned about economic conditions. His recent campaign efforts have focused on these groups, aiming to expand his base and capitalize on the growing dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s economic policies.
The polling data also suggests that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent exit from the race and endorsement of Trump has had little impact on voter preferences, with 79% of respondents stating it made no difference in their choice. This indicates that the race is likely to remain highly competitive, with both candidates needing to focus on turnout and mobilization efforts as the election approaches.
In the coming weeks, Harris and Trump will face off in key battleground states, where the race is expected to be particularly close. With Trump gaining ground and Harris’s lead narrowing, the 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most contentious and closely watched in recent history. Both campaigns are intensifying their efforts to sway undecided voters and solidify their support bases, setting the stage for a dramatic showdown in November.
