Robert Cahaly: There Are More “Shy” Trump Voters than Last Time

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"American flag and white flag with vote text on white background" (CC BY 2.0) by Marco Verch

As major polls are showing that Joe Biden is taking the lead over President Trump, a small group of pollsters has warned that “shy” Trump supporters could pave the way and make President Trump win again. 

One of the pollsters suggesting that possibility of President Trump winning again is Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group. Robert Cahaly is one of the only independent outlets that had predicted a victory for the Republican last 2016 election after finding that President Trump is winning in the key states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. 


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In this year’s analysis of Trafalgar a few days before the election, they stated that they again found a small lead of President Trump in both of those swing states. This analysis contradicts almost every other major polls. 

In the last presidential election, the major polling industries had also faced major embarrassment after their projections, and data widely underrated President Trump’s chances of winning the presidency. 

In relation to this, Cahaly also stated that there is a possibility that the same scenario could also happen in this 2020 election because the “hidden” voters of President Trump were overlooked. 

On Monday, Cahaly said, “There are more “shy Trump voters” than last time, and it’s not even a contest,”

Meanwhile, Susquehanna Polling and Research had also promoted the same theory of “hidden” Trump voters. Jim Lee, an analyst from Susquehanna, told WFMZ this week that many voters do not want to admit that they are voting for Trump, to which he said, “a guy that has been called a racist.” 

In its most recent survey, President Trump and Joe Biden are in a tight race in Wisconsin. In Florida, their analysis showed that the President has a four-point lead against Joe Biden. 

Moreover, Jim Lee also stated, “That submerged Trump factor is very real. We have been able to capture it, and I’m really disappointed others have not.”

Many pollsters rejected the hidden Trump voters’ theory.

On the other hand, there are many pollsters who had rejected the idea that their voters of President Trump, who are “hiding,” disputing the reliability of the polling methods that Trafalgar is using. 

Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster, told The Hill that Trafalgar does not disclose their proprietary digital methods. That’s why he said he could not evaluate what they are doing. 

McHenry was also quoted saying, “They’re far enough out on a limb that a year from now, we’ll all remember if they were very right or very wrong.”

In addition to this, McHenry also thinks that it is less likely that voters of President Trump would likely lie about who they will vote for whenever pollsters approach them. However, he acknowledged that these data could be unbalanced if Trump voters do not participate in surveys. 

Yet still, he said, that kind of “skewed response pattern” will not certainly be enough to explain the national deficits that they are seeing. 

‘It certainly wouldn’t be enough to explain the national deficits we’re seeing,’ McHenry said. 

Meanwhile, with the new surveys, Joe Biden is seen to be leading President Trump in Ohio and Florida, giving him a predicted edge in the battleground states. 

On Monday, the polls released by New Quinnipiac gave Joe Biden a five-point lead in Florida with 47 to 42, a four-point lead in Ohio with 47 to 43, and the poll had also had him up in Pennsylvania with 51 to 46.

Meanwhile, President Trump could be seen leading in polls made in Arizona with NBC polls and Maris polls showing a tie of 48% and a 49% to 47% lead. These polls also brought Joe Biden’s polling average down to half a percentage point. 

However, President Trump’s potentially most important state to win over is Pennsylvania, although the results of this are still unsure of whether it will be the same as the last 2016 election.