According to a recent survey conducted by Emerson College, in the event of a theoretical rematch in 2024, erstwhile President Trump would have an early advantage over President Biden.
In a head-to-head race, Trump is ahead of Biden by 44 percent to 39 percent, according to a nationwide survey. Another 12 percent of registered voters say they plan to vote for someone else.
Biden Support Dwindling
From May to now, when the same poll found Trump with 44 percent support in a 2024 race against Biden, his support has remained consistent at this level.
Furthermore, since then, support for Biden has decreased substantially, going from 42% in May to 39% in late June. This is a significant dip in support.
Joe Biden gets more unpopular by the day, yet continues to act as if he has a sweeping mandate to reform all of America.
There's a reason Democrats are going to lose big in 2022, and Biden will lose or not be running by 2024. https://t.co/BGtm6TRNOh
— Dan K. Eberhart (@DanKEberhart) June 30, 2022
The question of whether or not there will be a repeat of the contest for president of 2020 in 2024 remains unanswered.
Although President Biden stated he intends to run for reelection to the White House, several Democrats have begun to doubt whether or not he should actually go through with this plan.
POLL: 69% of Americans say President Joe Biden should not run for president again in 2024. https://t.co/YSSeCEaeoP pic.twitter.com/EsjkbvLydK
— Newsmax (@newsmax) June 28, 2022
On the other hand, Trump has made several cryptic references to the possibility of running for president again in 2024.
However, he has not officially committed to running again; many Republicans continue to have doubts about whether or not he would really do so.
Nevertheless, if he does, in the end, decide to run for president, Trump would be the obvious pick to obtain the nomination of the Republican Party for president.
55% of those surveyed said they would vote for Trump in the Republican primary for president in 2024.
20% said they would vote for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a prominent leader in the GOP who has been talked about as a possible presidential candidate.
Hypothetical Primary Elections
In the hypothetical Republican primary match-up, no other Republican candidate receives more than ten percent of the vote. While every other potential candidate in the poll gets less than 5% support, former Vice President Mike Pence receives 9% of the vote in this poll.
64 percent of respondents believe Joe Biden should be the nominee for the Democrat Party in 2024, while 36 percent of the electorate believes that he should not be the candidate.
However, considering that the first primary elections and caucuses of the 2024 election cycle won’t take place for another year and a half, very few Democrats have established themselves for the possibility of running for the White House, in contrast to the many Republicans who have done so.
In the national poll conducted by Emerson College between June 28 and June 29, a total of 1,271 eligible voters were surveyed. It has a confidence interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, comparable to a margin of error in other contexts.
In the end, 2024 is still a bit far away. Even though things look good for Trump, we’ll have to wait to see if he decides to run.