Perhaps He Won’t Run in 2024 After All

If you asked anyone a week ago about the likelihood of Donald Trump running for president again in 2024, almost everyone would have put the likelihood at 99 percent.

After all, once he says things like, “I had already made that decision,” it gives the impression the choice has already been made.

However, after having a few recent conversations with peers in Washington, D.C. who are familiar with Trump World, nobody is so sure anymore.

Incentives Not to Make an Early Declaration

Jeremy Stahl discusses a few of the arguments some individuals are making to suggest that Trump might not run for office in this state.

Stahl noted his second reason for predicting Trump will not run for president is there are numerous economic advantages pointing in the opposite direction, including one major incentive connected to Trump’s legal woes.

Stahl stated he believes these financial incentives will discourage Trump from running.

That is to say, the Republican National Committee (RNC) continues to pay Trump’s substantial legal bills. The RNC also stated it will only proceed to do so if he is not a presidential candidate.

The GOP “must be neutral” in any disputed Republican primary election under the current rules; therefore, footing a candidate’s legal bills would constitute a violation of this neutrality.

Then, there is another monetary incentive for Trump to delay declaring his candidacy.

This incentive is the fact if Trump does become an official candidate for the presidency, he loses authority over all of the upwards of $100 million in campaign funds he stocked away in the Save America PAC, except for the sum of $5,000.

This is an incentive for Trump to delay declaring his candidacy until after the election.

Fundraising Efforts

Both of these reflect what everybody else is hearing.

Trump is in no hurry to begin paying his own legal fees, especially considering the growing likelihood that those bills are due to significantly increase in the near future.

Finally, despite the fact the former president has a track record of success as a fundraiser in the past, he seems to be losing ground as of late. This is even more of a justification to keep access to the one hundred million dollars in his PAC.

To tell the truth, though, no one can honestly claim they are certain that Trump will not run for president again in 2024.

A week ago, the odds were significantly higher than they are right now. This is considerably closer to being exactly 50-50. In the end, we’ll have to wait to see how things unfold.

However, one thing is certain: Trump running for president again will definitely cause a lot of talk in the political world and prompt strong reactions from a lot of people. 

This article appeared in The Political Globe and has been published here with permission.