In the present political context, a prominent independent pollster stated on Saturday that polls might grossly underestimate the number of Republican voters.
Robert Cahaly, the Trafalgar Group’s principal pollster, stated in a Twitter thread that President Biden’s recent comments on “MAGA Republicans” will make it more difficult to survey fans of erstwhile President Trump than in past years.
Semi Fascism??
Cahaly said over the last two presidential race cycles, notable Democrats’ name-calling and threats led to the sensation of “shy Trump voters.”
In 2016 Trump supporters were called “Deplorables” and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that “most” polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
Biden’s rising rhetoric against Trump fans, accusing them of adopting “semi-fascism” and being a menace to America, will make it more challenging to poll these individuals as the 2022 midterms approach.
Cahaly claimed on Twitter that Trump supporters were referred to as “deplorables” and other derogatory terms in 2016.
This was a significant contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ sensation that most pollsters missed, resulting in a significant loss of public confidence in polling in the weeks following the election.
Cahaly followed by stating in 2020, Trump supporters and conservatives who were out of line with “woke” culture would be “canceled” or “doxed.” This resulted in “hidden votes” that “most” surveys undercounted; consequently, Trump’s support in crucial swing states exceeded expectations.
Now, the Biden administration has categorized so-called “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy, focusing federal authorities on them. This action produced a new type of voter who will be even more difficult to poll or estimate.
I call this new group “submerged voters”. They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on “MAGA Republicans” has created an army of
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
He noted Republican participation in 2022 will likely exceed anything polls or models predict. All surveys, including his own, will underestimate the influence of these “submerged voters.”
Other independent pollsters concurred with Cahaly’s evaluation.
Further Consensus
Big Data Poll director Richard Baris stated, in reaction to Cahaly’s statement, indeed, calling them an adversary of the state causes participation to decline the following month.
Those who appear to be “undecided” do so uniformly.
Rasmussen Reports responded by pushing Cahaly’s claim that voter demonization leads to diabolical surveying challenges.
Cahaly’s statements follow a warning by New York Times’ senior political analyst, Nate Cohn, that conventional polling is grossly exaggerating Democratic support and on the verge of yet another major polling mistake.
Cohn said the red light is once again flashing. Democratic contenders for the Senate are outpacing expectations in the exact locations where polls overvalued Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.
Cohn cited Wisconsin, where institutional surveys in 2020 overestimated Biden’s popularity by approximately eight points; in 2022, polls prefer Democratic Senate candidate Mandela Barnes by a comparable margin.
It raises the potential, according to Cohn, the apparent Democratic success in Wisconsin and elsewhere is an illusion created by chronic and unchecked biases in survey research.
If the surveys are again inaccurate, it will not be difficult to explain. Since the last election, the majority of pollsters have not made significant statistical modifications.
This article appeared in The Political Globe and has been published here with permission.
